Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?

Ṁ1kṀ5k

2027

34%

chance

ALL

Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight.

Resolves Yes if Second Crewed Flight of Starliner takes Crew to ISS and brings them back on Earth safely, irrespective of delays.

If problems arise such as Helium Leak or Thruster Malfunction, will still Resolve Yes if crew is brought home safe on Starliner.

Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve No if there is no second crewed Starliner flight by program shutdown (not just by market close date).

Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator plans to extend the close date.

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Will you extend the close date?

@LarsOsborne I think I will, but I doubt this program will go on for long. They have already set a lot of money on fire.

"Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight."

By market close or program shutdown?

@ProjectVictory Program Shutdown

bought Ṁ50 NO

I see this as yet another proxy market for the question "will the Starliner program be cancelled without another launch ever occurring?" I believe that answer is YES, so I am arbitraging all the related markets, like when the next launch will occur and whether the program will be "curtailed."