Will a human land on the moon before 2028? | Manifold

Will a human land on the moon before 2028?

66

Ṁ1kṀ14k

2027

4%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if a human lands on the moon after 2022 and before 2028, otherwise NO. (The human must be alive to count.)

Market context

Space exploration

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related: /strutheo/will-a-human-set-foot-on-the-moon-a

https://manifold.markets/plsdelete/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo?r=c3BpZGVy
numbers here would indicate "before 2028" at 17%

predictedNO

@spider that market is kind of out of whack with all the other moon landing markets (see list here: https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again )

Free arbitrage if you feel like aligning everything

after 2022

New conspiracy: the lack of moon landing in 2023 was a hoax

People are also trading

Will a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2026?

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Related questions

Will a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2026?

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Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?

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