Resolution criteria: Resolve YES if an antidumping duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia (case A-821-840, HTS 7110.21.0000) is published in the Federal Register by October 31, 2026. This requires both Commerce final affirmative determination AND USITC final affirmative injury determination.
Timeline & Probabilities:
📅 Feb 10, 2026: Prelim AD announced
• Russia-wide margin: 132.83%
📅 By Mar 1, 2026: Federal Register publication (85% probability)
• Legal trigger for statutory deadlines and cash deposits
📅 By Jun 30, 2026: Commerce final affirmative AD determination (75%)
• Expected ~Apr 28, 2026 unless extended • Final rate uncertain (separate market for rate prediction) • Prelim reference point: 132.83%
📅 By Sep 30, 2026: USITC final affirmative injury (70%)
• Critical gate: No duties without injury finding • Material injury or threat determination required
📅 By Oct 31, 2026: AD duty order published (65%)
• Requires both Commerce + USITC affirmative • Once issued: cash deposits required on all imports • Rate >100% effectively shuts down Russian imports
Why this matters:
Russia = 40% of global palladium production
2024 US imports from Russia: 27.6 metric tons
Duties would force shift to South African/Canadian/recycled sources
Supply chain disruption + price impact
Related markets:
Federal Register publication trigger
Commerce final determination
USITC injury determination
Final cash-deposit rate (separate numeric market)
Case details:
A-821-840 (Antidumping)
C-821-841 (Countervailing Duty, concurrent)
HTS 7110.21.0000 (unwrought palladium)
Market created by: Curtis Steele (Palladium Specialist)
🤖 Generated with Claude Code
1,000The combination of a 132.83% prelim margin, the ITC’s affirmative preliminary injury finding, and the anti‑Russia political backdrop all point toward an eventual duty order; the market looks slightly underpriced relative to typical AD/ITC follow‑through odds and the comfortable time cushion before October 31, 2026.
With prelim AD already in the Federal Register and the final phase formally scheduled, the key remaining gate is ITC injury; given the geopolitical overlay and high dumping margin, I think the odds of both an affirmative final AD determination and timely positive ITC injury finding are closer to 80% than 70%.