
If a majority of robotaxis tesla makes explicitly for robotaxiing have LIDAR, when tesla starts using robotaxis for robotaxiing, resolves YES.
Otherwise, resolves NO
if tesla never uses robotaxis for robotaxiing, or usage of lidar is absolutely unknown, we’re screwed
People are also trading
Here’s a Tesla Model Y with roof-mounted lidar sensors.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/20/24182672/heres-a-tesla-model-y-with-roof-mounted-lidar-sensors
@Bayesian
Some model 3 and model Y are being used for robotaxi-ing. Are you expecting/needing an explicit statement that these specific cars were made for robotaxi-ing? [seems unlikely such a statement would be forecoming so can question resolve based on these model 3 /Y cars?]
Or does this apply to whole of a model? i.e. if they say they expect to use 51% of cybercabs for robotaxi-ing and sell 49%, is that enough for that part of the requirements?
What if it is 49% robotaxi-ing and 51% for sales to customers? or other splits? Do we potentially wait 20+ years until there is a model that is "made explicitly" for robotaxi-ing? [Seems like people might not want to have large holdings for 3% over a long time?]
Alternately can we assume that cybercab model will fulfill this requirement and model 3 and Y will not as 3 & Y are mainly (and initially entirely) for vehicle sales but cybercab is a 2 seater because 90% of taxi rides involve 2 or fewer passengers so cybercab is designed for majority of taxi rides and this being a design consideration has been explicitly stated? [Project Redwood cybercab with steering wheel dropped potentially means cybercab is for both robotaxi-ing and for sales but it doesn't feel right that this could/should mean cybercab should not qualify.]
@ChristopherRandles i’m not sure I understand your questions. I don’t need an explicit statement but I’ll need stronger non official evidence to make up for the lack of an wxplicit statement
I don’t know what you are asking after that, i count up as best i can the N tesla owned robotsxies at launch, count the lidar havers, and do a division
@Bayesian
Does this only resolve when cybercab vehicles starts being used for robotaxiing or can 3/Y vehicles count?
How many vehicles have to be in use to say "starts using robotaxis for robotaxiing" has happened?
Do you envisage it is possible that you potentially might have to wait years for evidence that some of the vehicles are 'made explicitly for robotaxiing'? Alternately, is the existence of some number of brand new vehicles/cybercabs working as robotaxis sufficient in itself to say they were made explicitly for robotaxiing?
An example to try to explain why I see further explanation is needed:
Suppose we have a few hundred robotaxis without lidar being used but there is no evidence they were 'made for robotaxiing' so this question does not resolve for lack of evidence. Then 20 new vehicles with lidar start being used and it is known that they were made for robotaxiing. How does the question resolve? Is it based on the 20 known to be 'explicitly made for robotaxiing' or ...?
@notarealuser I think the most reasonable meaning for launch is when it goes out of closed beta? afaik it's currently in closed beta? but I haven't been following this closely, I will when i resolve the market tho
Here’s a Tesla Model Y with roof-mounted lidar sensors.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/20/24182672/heres-a-tesla-model-y-with-roof-mounted-lidar-sensors