Resolves YES if SSI releases an AI model (any modality counts, even eg chess-playing ai would count) before july 2026.
1,000Buying NO at 22%. SSI has released zero products, demos, papers, or benchmarks in nearly two years of existence. Team is ~16-20 people — a research lab, not a product organization. Sutskever explicitly stated his first product IS superintelligence, and estimates that is 5-20 years away. The Nov 2025 interview shift to "gradual release" was philosophical repositioning, not a shipping signal. $32B valuation with zero revenue creates investor pressure eventually, but the current backers (Alphabet, NVIDIA, a16z) are patient capital. Even with the generous resolution criteria (any modality), the gap from zero public output to shipping anything in 4 months is enormous.
