Israel enters into a new war in 2026?
13
Ṁ1kṀ718Dec 31
45%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Declared wars resolve YES.
Major operations that are not official declared resolve partial at 50%. Examples of past conflicts that, if they'd started in 2026, would count: Six-Day War, First (1982) Lebanon War, Operation Protective Edge (2014). I will use my best judgment as to what counts as a major operation. If it feels like an edge case, I'll resolve somewhere between 0% and 50%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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