Longtermist Policymaking provokes Thermonuclear War by 1st Jan 2028
12
Ṁ210Ṁ5252028
8%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The third of a trio of forecasts made by the New Statesman.
Resolution Criteria: A Yudkowsky-like "The Way"/Effective Altruist/Longtermist/Successor Movement policy proposal to e.g. bomb GPU Farms is responded to by a nuclear-armed nation as provocation, increasing the chance of a nuclear war by 1st Jan 2028. This is reported by two credible news outlets e.g. BBC News, New Statesman.
Alternate Resolution Criteria: As my paper calendar marks 1st Jan 2028 from my conrete bomb shelter, I lightly chuckle at my hubris to even ask such a question.
The Manifold Market remains unresolved.
New Statesman Article [paywall]
https://magazine.newstatesman.com/2023/08/03/longtermism-is-a-threat-to-humanity/content.html
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